IMF lowers Nigeria’s 2024 growth forecast to 2.9% amid weaker economic activity

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its 2024 growth forecast for Nigeria’s economy, lowering it to 2.9%, citing weaker-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year. This new projection marks a 0.2 percentage point drop from the 3.1% forecast in July 2024, according to the IMF’s October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO), released during the annual World Bank and IMF meetings.

Despite the downgrade for 2024, the IMF raised its growth forecast for Nigeria in 2025, projecting a 3.2% expansion, up from 3.0% in the July report. Similarly, the 2024 growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa was reduced to 3.6%, a slight dip from July’s 3.7%, with a revised 4.2% growth forecast for 2025, reflecting optimism about the region’s economic recovery.

The IMF attributed the downgrade in Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth largely to Nigeria’s weaker economic performance and the continued conflict in South Sudan, which caused a significant contraction of 26% in its economy. Globally, the IMF maintained its 2024 growth outlook at 3.2%, though it slightly lowered the 2025 forecast to 3.2% from 3.3%.

The report highlights the challenges Nigeria and other African economies face, but also points to potential recovery in the coming years as supply constraints ease and weather shocks diminish.